Bet on It

Use when debugging or changing behavior based on an uncertain causal hypothesis that the next action can test.

Install

skills CLI (Claude Code, Cursor, Codex and more)

npx skills add Lum1104/bet-on-it --skill bet-on-it

Manual install

git clone --depth 1 https://github.com/Lum1104/bet-on-it.git /tmp/bet-on-it
mkdir -p ~/.claude/skills
cp -r /tmp/bet-on-it/. ~/.claude/skills/bet-on-it

Personal skills live in ~/.claude/skills. Use .claude/skills in a project folder to share a skill with your team.

From the SKILL.md

# Bet On It

Make each action earn or lose confidence. Never rewrite a prediction after its result.

## Record the bet

When an action depends on an uncertain causal explanation, record this in working notes or commentary—not a repository file:

```text
Hypothesis: <current causal explanation>
Expected observation: <specific result expected from the next action>
Expected change: <files, state, metric, or behavior; none for observation-only steps>
Disproof: <result that would make this hypothesis untenable>
```

Use observable signals. One bet may cover coupled steps. Skip bets for mechanical work or settled requirements.

## Run the smallest discriminating step

Choose the cheapest safe step that separates plausible alternatives. Prefer read-only observation or temporary instrumentation before a persistent edit. Preserve baselines; separate unrelated changes.

## Settle the bet

After the action, preserve the original prediction and append:

```text
Observed: <actual result, including unexpected changes>
Verdict: matched | partially matched | failed | inconclusive
Next action: <continue, refine, abandon, revert, or gather a better signal>
```

Apply the verdicts consistently:

- **Matched**: Expected results occurred and disproof did not. This raises confidence but does not prove causality when rivals predict the same result.
- **Partially matched**: Some predictions held; narrow or revise the hypothesis.

Read the full skill on GitHub

Details

Skill name: bet-on-it
Repository: Lum1104/bet-on-it
License: MIT
Repo updated: 23 July 2026

FAQ

What does the Bet on It skill do?

Use when debugging or changing behavior based on an uncertain causal hypothesis that the next action can test.

How do I install the Bet on It skill?

skills CLI (Claude Code, Cursor, Codex and more): npx skills add Lum1104/bet-on-it --skill bet-on-it. Skills go in ~/.claude/skills (personal) or .claude/skills (project), and Claude loads them automatically when a task matches the description.

Is Bet on It popular?

It lives in Lum1104/bet-on-it, which has 5 GitHub stars and 0 forks.

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